Trump can’t revive industry. But his voters might still get raises.
Wage stagnation in the Rust Belt likely won’t endure through his presidency.
If Trump can simply find a way to keep the economy growing even modestly for several years, and if the unemployment rate remains low, he has a good chance of presiding over a period of sustained wage growth similar to what America saw in the mid- to late 1990s, when Bill Clinton was president.
.. They might not bring back many factory or mining jobs, but they will boost the paychecks of the men and women who lost production jobs years ago and remain angry about it today.
.. For all Trump’s railing against the “terrible” economy under President Obama, census data released in September shows that typical workers at every level, from the very poor to the very rich, experienced income growth in 2015.
.. Americans without college degrees started to see rising incomes as far back as 2013.
.. his promises to deport millions of immigrants quickly and to threaten tariffs on trading partners such as China and Mexico in an effort to revive the millions of manufacturing jobs lost in the Rust Belt since the turn of the century.
.. Most forecasters say the policies would, instead, dampen job growth by reducing the labor force and raising prices on imported consumer goods, and would possibly push America into recession.
.. There’s a good chance — which markets are already pricing in — that those plans could stoke higher inflation. The Federal Reserve could respond by raising interest rates more quickly than expected, which could pump the brakes on growth and possibly cause a downturn.
.. What Trump needs is just enough policy fuel to continue growth, without provoking a shock — from a trade war, interest rate hikes or anything else — that would send the economy tumbling.