Economic Anxiety Didn’t Elect Trump and It May Hurt His Party in the Midterms
On the whole, Trump voters were never extraordinarily economically distressed. And now the economically distressed are actually less likely to approve of Mr. Trump’s performance as president.
.. The results showed that minorities of Americans reported an acute economic struggle in the previous year. Eight percent said they or their spouse had lost a job. The percentage who had difficulty making a payment for their mortgage or other major expenses ranged between 7 and 14 percent.
.. A larger fraction expressed concern about their economic situation. About one in five were somewhat or very dissatisfied with their income and 25 percent reported a drop in their income in the previous year. Savings were a real concern: 33 percent said that they did not have any savings and 40 percent were dissatisfied with their savings. Nearly half (47 percent) said that they were not very or not at all financially prepared for the unexpected.
.. Who was especially likely to report economic distress? To answer this, we combined these 14 questions into an overall index that ranges from 0-100, where 100 indicates the most distress. The average in this survey was 29. Among the white working class voters that featured in so much election commentary, the average was also 29, which suggested more distress than whites with a college degree, who averaged 23.
.. But focusing on the white working class obscures the true contours of economic distress. In reality, it is people of color who report the most distress — a fact that is not surprising but stands out clearly in the new data. Hispanic-Americans without a college degree averaged 37 on this index and African-Americans without a college degree averaged 32. In fact, African-Americans with a college degree reported slightly more distress (30, on average) than whites without a college degree.
.. But focusing on the white working class obscures the true contours of economic distress. In reality, it is people of color who report the most distress — a fact that is not surprising but stands out clearly in the new data. Hispanic-Americans without a college degree averaged 37 on this index and African-Americans without a college degree averaged 32. In fact, African-Americans with a college degree reported slightly more distress (30, on average) than whites without a college degree.
.. economic distress was not a distinguishing feature of Mr. Trump’s support, especially compared to attitudes about race and immigration.
.. If anything, economic distress is now a drag on Mr. Trump’s support. Republicans who reported high levels of distress were 10 percentage points less likely to approve of Mr. Trump, compared with those with low levels of distress. Among independents, economic distress was associated with a steeper 17-point drop in approval. In other words, economic distress is doing what it typically does in American politics: serve as a referendum on the incumbent president.
.. Mr. Trump remains less popular than the economy’s growth would predict.