Donald Trump’s path to victory
He needs to best Romney with white men and turn a few reliably blue Rust Belt states red.
To reach 270, Trump’s team is aiming to capture America’s Rust Belt — specifically, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin — where polls generally show him performing better than Mitt Romney did at this point in 2012.
.. If he can capture Florida and keep North Carolina — the 2012 red state of the lightest hue — a strong showing that includes capture of the Rust Belt could, Trump’s team believes, put him over the top.
.. On Thursday, Trump reportedly told donors during a meeting that he thinks he can put New Jersey and Maryland in play as well
.. “Never in modern history have we seen two nominees who have an unfavorable rating over 50 percent,” said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster in Washington. “We’re truly in uncharted waters trying to use history to determine what’s going to happen in this campaign.”
.. “Right now, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida look very close because she’s having a hard time getting Sanders supporters on board,”
.. Pennsylvania is increasingly viewed as Trump’s best pickup chance — the state that, provided he wins Ohio and Florida, could get him to 270.
.. Trump won the Pennsylvania primary but saw his vote total in those swing suburban counties come in 25 points lower than his support in the western part of the state that borders Appalachia, where he won close to 8 in 10 votes in some places.
“For him to win here, he really needs to do better in the suburban counties
.. “But especially with older, Catholic white voters, Trump’s talk about trade policy is hitting home, so there is more of an opportunity — in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
.. “Fair trade versus free trade is a very hot issue in Michigan with all the manufacturing,”
.. “Trump will probably do better amongst Reagan Democrats, African-Americans and blue-collar workers than Romney did,” he continued. “But Romney probably did better with independents than Trump will.”