A New Phase Opens on North Korea; Is the U.S. Ready?

A high-level delegation from South Korea visits the North, potentially opening a new diplomatic path

Yet as this moment arrives, the Trump administration hasn’t confirmed an ambassador to South Korea or a permanent assistant secretary of state for Asian affairs. The State Department’s special representative for North Korea policy has just resigned, and the military commander in charge of Pacific forces soon will leave, to be replaced by an officer light on Asian experience.

.. In short, an outbreak of diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula has begun, and the U.S. could find itself behind the curve, unable to adequately protect its interests or steer the process. There is also a risk that the arrival of diplomacy will prompt South Korea to cancel planned military exercises with the U.S., a step the U.S. fears will send a dangerous signal of weakness.

.. Some suggest appointing a special presidential envoy to oversee the North Korean issue, much as the late diplomat Richard Holbrooke did in helping end Bosnia’s civil war in the 1990s. But special envoys also can create internal tensions and a different kind of uncertainty.

.. “I don’t think they work unless totally embraced and supported by both the secretary of state and the president,” says Robert Gates

.. —Figure out what incentives to offer North Korea. In the carrot-and-sticks equation, the sticks are clear: relentless economic pressure and threats of military action.

But what are the carrots being offered for repudiation of the North’s nuclear program? Potentially, there could be two big ones.

  1. One would be a peace treaty with North Korea. A second could be to offer help developing what Mr. Kim, in his own ham-handed way, sometimes seems to want: more of
  2. a market economy that can keep up with South Korea’s economic juggernaut.

.. The stated, broader goal of this “maximum pressure” is to force North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons in entirety. That is a fine goal, but many analysts don’t think it is realistic, and even those who think it is achievable consider it a long-term goal.