Canada Stays the Course on Budget Amid Improving Economy

Last year, Canada pledged to spend roughly 24 billion Canadian dollars ($18 billion) in infrastructure by 2020 in an effort to spur growth. It also introduced tax breaks targeted at middle-income earners and households with children

.. Deficits will remain a mainstay in Canadian public finances for the foreseeable future. Ottawa projects a deficit of C$28.5 billion next year, or 1.4% of Canada’s gross domestic product, and remain in the C$20 billion range for each year through 2022. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stay slightly above 31% over the next four years.

.. the government is also benefiting from stabilizing oil prices, which is lifting fortunes in the resource-rich region of western Canada.

.. suggest Canada’s economy has moved into a higher gear, following two years of lackluster growth because of the swift fall in commodity prices.

.. The government projects growth of 1.9% this year and 2% in 2018, which is below the Bank of Canada consensus.

.. Three quarters of Canada’s exports—or the equivalent of 20% of Canadian output — go to the U.S.

Canadian Factory Sales Post Surprise Increase

Petroleum and coal, and chemical industries led gains for January

 Canadian factory sales unexpectedly increased in January, as roughly three-quarters of Canada’s manufacturing sector posted gains in the month, led by the petroleum and coal, and chemical industries.

The Markets Don’t Believe in Trump for the Long Term

The yield curve tells a story of Trumpflation, a boost to both growth and inflation lasting a few years, with little long-term impact on the real economy

 .. The yield curve in the all-important Treasury market tells a story of Trumpflation, a boost to both growth and inflation lasting a few years, with little long-term impact on the real economy.
..“People have pushed up their expectations about growth, but it’s more of a cyclical view than a structural view,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

.. The hope of a cyclical boom is reflected across equity markets, although the details of the new administration’s policies create more noise at a stock level.

.. If Mr. Trump’s stimulus plans are implemented by Congress—a big if—they might end up boosting inflation more than real growth.
.. One interpretation: Investors think the downward pressures on growth and inflation from the aging population are greater than any likely productivity gains from cutting red tape or improving infrastructure.
.. but it’s also obvious that if investors truly believed Mr. Trump would deliver a big and permanent boost to growth or inflation, few would want 30-year bonds at a yield of just over 3%.

Shades of Modi

She was referring to our soon-to-be prime minister, Narendra Modi, who was running a campaign that skillfully melded the appeal of an outsider (he had once been a tea seller, he claimed) to the established order with the language of Hindu majoritarian politics, tapping in to existing prejudices against India’s Muslim minority.

.. When I heard Mr. Trump’s speech today in New Delhi, it was difficult to escape the echo of what we have already witnessed in India. In his inaugural speech, Mr. Modi talked of pulling the poor of India out of poverty. Many pundits, quick to look for hope where there was none, said that Mr. Modi’s speech reflected a new inclusiveness after the hatred of the campaign.

More than two years later, nothing has changed for the poor of India, but the bigotry that helped Mr. Modi ride to power has flourished.