Vladimir’s Vision

Putin was asked point-blank whether the armed men wearing Russian uniforms without insignia were Russian soldiers. His answer: “They were local forces of self-defense.” “Have we participated in the training of the forces of the Crimea self-defense?” a journalist asked.

“No, we did not,” Putin said, adding, “One can buy any uniform in our stores.” The Russian defense minister promptly dismissed the idea of a Russian military presence in Crimea as “sheer nonsense.” But yesterday Putin said, “Of course the Russian servicemen did back the Crimean self-defense forces. They acted in a civil but a decisive and professional manner.”

This obvious contradiction should not be seen as an embarrassment. In Russia, only a very small crowd of journalists and liberal intellectuals may pay attention, but this constituency is irrelevant at best, and is often decried as the “fifth column” or “national traitors.” Meanwhile, a majority of Russians don’t seem to mind if the government is untruthful. In a national poll conducted in March, more than seventy per cent of Russians said they did not mind if, in some cases, information is withheld in pursuit of the government’s interests, and more than fifty per cent said they saw nothing wrong if, in order to meet the government’s goals, information is intentionally distorted.

Rethinking Putin’s Russia

U.S. officials, asserts Brzezinski, have been slow to grasp the peculiar psychology of Putin himself: the would-be strongman who likes having himself photographed bare-chested or dropping opponents in judo matches; the iron leader with a savior complex. “There is very little in Putin’s conduct that is purely in Russian history,” he says. “A lot of it is strikingly similar to Hitler and Mussolini—that narcissistic megalomania, which becomes more acute the more people around you are kissing your behind.”

.. In fact, for all the hand-wringing over Obama and his predecessors’ approach to Russia, some experts believe that Putin is acting mainly out of weakness, not strength. The West, in other words, really did win the Cold War, and the Ukraine crisis is only the backlash.

Reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is possible—but it will take time, money and sustained political will

Cuts in the energy subsidies which lead Ukrainians to burn gas so wastefully are sure to be required in return for money from the IMF. Ukraine currently produces 20bcm of gas; if it were as efficient in its use as some countries are, it could be more or less self sufficient

.. Oil-and-gas exports make up 70% of Russia’s $515 billion annual exports, and 52% of the federal budget, according to America’s Energy Information Administration.

.. In theory, Russia’s gas exports to Europe are a weapon that points the other way. If Russia were to push farther into Ukraine, or to try its chances in Moldova, Georgia or the Baltic states, and Europe to take strong action in response, it could shut down exports completely, thus doing huge damage to the EU. But barring immediate, permanent and total victory, that would also doom Russia as a gas exporter.