The pace of exports hit 1 million barrels a day this year, contributing to the downward pressure on crude prices
The U.S. exported 1 million barrels of oil a day during some months so far this year—double the pace of 2016—and is on track to average that amount for all of 2017, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from the U.S. Energy Department and the International Trade Commission... While U.S. exports make up just 1% of global oil volumes, they are a new factor helping to tamp down prices and keep them rangebound between $45 and $55 a barrel...The U.S. still imports a lot of foreign crude, averaging 10 million barrels a day last year, because it is the world’s No. 1 oil consumer. But that level has dropped sharply in recent years.
Flood of Dollar Debt Could Come Back to Haunt Emerging Economies
Emerging-market companies are binging on U.S. dollar debt and that could become a source of trouble in some parts of the world if growth slows, interest rates rise or the dollar resumes its ascent.
.. U.S. dollar debt stood at $3.6 trillion in emerging markets through the third quarter of 2016, an all-time high
.. a bout of investor risk aversion could expose $135 billion worth of corporate credit to repayment problems.
.. If the dollar appreciates faster than expected, some corporate borrowers, especially those who derive their revenues largely in local currencies, could find themselves in a currency mismatch and be forced to ask the central bank for help—which not all central banks are positioned to do.
.. Countries such as India and the Philippines, which have relatively low stocks of external debt and healthy foreign-exchange reserves, are in better shape, analysts say. Economies such as Malaysia and South Africa, which have small currency reserves and high levels of dollar-denominated debt, are at particular risk. Venezuela and Turkey look especially vulnerable.
.. Venezuela’s state-run oil company PdVSA was late on its coupon payments worth $404 million in November, in an apparent struggle against low oil prices and falling foreign-exchange reserves.
.. “There are potential vulnerabilities looking further ahead, particularly if the Fed were to raise rates much more aggressively than what the market has priced at the moment,”
Why oil prices will never return to $100 a barrel, in one chart
He explained that one of the biggest risks to the oil market is how low-cost producers respond to this abundance. In the current market, these low-cost producers can “ration” their supplies because they don’t have large expenses to immediately cover. That means they may be able to wait a day or month to produce more oil if it fits better into the trading environment.
.. “I would expect the low-cost producers to gradually use their competitive advantage to increase their market share relative to high-cost producers,” he said.
.. “My view on oil has always been that the level of oil prices we saw in the 2011-2014 period around $100-$110 didn’t seem a natural settling point. That in itself was a function of the many issues going on that at the time, particularly significant supply disruptions post the Arab Spring,”