K Street scrambles to prepare for an administration it spent little time planning for.
Defense lobbyists are getting a flood of calls from longtime clients and new prospects eager to take advantage of a potential military buildup under President-elect Donald Trump — but also fearful he will spark a trade war and jeopardize their lucrative arms deals.
.. He said there is a sense that Trump’s history in business could help defense companies and their supporters on Capitol Hill to negotiate with his administration in a way that has been more difficult in the Obama years.
.. Defense industry executives fear that by making it more difficult for the U.S. military to acquire goods it needs from overseas manufacturers, foreign governments will retaliate by shutting out U.S. contractors.
.. “Do whatever you want to the rest, but we’ve got a $60 billion defense surplus here and exports are important.”
.. “I believe it’s the only trade surplus left that the U.S. still enjoys. In this, a lot of good paying U.S. jobs are created.”
.. Oshkosh is among a number of leading Pentagon contractors who are heavily reliant on international sales, reporting last week a 22.2 percent jump in quarterly earnings largely due to “higher international sales in the defense segment.”
In another sign of the growing importance of foreign arms sales, Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest defense company, reported last month that international sales are on track to account for 25 percent of annual revenue later this year and 30 percent in the next few years.
K Street poised for big business in GOP-run Washington
Not only could Washington break its habit of gridlock, but the action looks set to happen on some of the highest-grossing causes.
“These are all high-dollar items,” said Stu Van Scoyoc, CEO of Van Scoyoc Associates. “There’s a very target-rich environment for people who want to get things done.”
.. But while Trump railed against lobbyists on the campaign trail, his administration could be a boon for the business of Washington.
.. Perhaps the biggest beneficiaries will be the small group of lobbyists who made inroads with his campaign or transition team. They include David Tamasi of Rasky Baerlein Strategic Communications, a finance chair for Trump Victory; American Continental Group’s David Urban, a senior adviser to campaign who delivered the key battleground state of Pennsylvania; former Speaker Newt Gingrich, a senior adviser at Dentons; Mercury’s Michael DuHaime, a former adviser to Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani; Squire Patton Boggs’ Jack Kingston, the former Georgia congressman who was a surrogate for Trump on TV, and Marc Lampkin of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, who has raised money for the transition.
“There will be scramble around town for the few people who have bona fide Trump relationships and connections,”
.. Trump’s main conduits to K Street include Scott Mason, a former Lowe’s lobbyist who became the campaign’s director of congressional relations; John Mashburn, the campaign policy adviser who used to be an aide to North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis; and Joshua Pitcock, who lobbied for Indiana under Gov. Mike Pence.
.. With a close Senate, Democrats with ties to likely minority leader Chuck Schumer will remain in demand.
.. “He ran a campaign with no substance, he didn’t have real plans,” a Republican lobbyist said. “That provides an opportunity for the Hill and downtown to help shape this a bit.”
.. It’s not yet clear what role lobbyists can play in the administration itself, and whether Trump will maintain Obama’s ban on lobbyists joining the administration. Either way, downtowners don’t expect much to come of Trump’s proposed ethics rules, including a five-year ban on lobbying for executive branch officials, lawmakers and their staffers, despite his heated “drain the swamp” rhetoric.
.. “Congress is most active when one party controls House, Senate and White House, and Washington is most relevant to industry when desire for reform overcomes inertial gridlock,” said Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. “2017 is going to be a very busy and consequential year.”
John Boehner’s Entirely Predictable Next Act
Boehner, in fact, will be assisting two separate firms. Last week, news broke that he is joining the board of Reynolds American, Inc. If that name doesn’t sound familiar, the name of one of its companies might: R.J. Reynolds, maker of Camel, Newport, and other cigarette brands. It’s a fitting gig for a man who was once “the nation’s highest-ranking smoker,”
.. Boehner isn’t becoming a lobbyist, at least not in name. He’ll be a “strategic adviser,” a title The Washington Post noted Tuesday is “a common designation for former legislators who take K Street jobs after leaving office but do not register to lobby.”
The power of community banks
reformers underestimate the significant amount of political power they wield. Even in the most broken and polarized Congress in decades, acts championed by community banks sail through as standalone legislation or attached to must-pass bills with barely any notice. Rather than a bulwark against the largest banks, community banks are just as likely to support changes that would help the largest banks while providing no new protections on them. Meanwhile research shows that community banks are doing fine financially, not struggling from regulations as most coverage shows.
.. “at least 75% of the decline in new bank formation would have occurred without any regulatory change” and that low interest rates and overall economic weakness are the bigger drivers. The fact that 10-year Treasuries fell from 2.25 percent to 1.5 percent this year, a sign of continued economic headwinds, put far more pressure on bank income than any reporting statement.