Why the participation rate hasn’t picked up as the recovery has strengthened is the biggest economic mystery of our time, and the new job figures only deepen it.
Presidents and the Economy
In fact, federal spending adjusted for inflation and population growth is lower now than it was when Mr. Obama took office; at the same point in the Reagan years, it was up more than 20 percent.
.. The Fed has had a hard time getting traction, but it has at least made an effort to boost the economy — and it has done so despite ferocious attacks from conservatives, who have accused it again and again of “debasing the dollar” and setting the stage for runaway inflation. Without Mr. Obama to shield its independence, the Fed might well have been bullied into raising interest rates, which would have been disastrous. So the president has indirectly aided the economy by helping to fend off the hard-money mob.
Employers Will Have to Raise Wages. They Just Don’t Know It Yet.
As the economy has gotten better the last five years, employers have had more and more job openings, but have been sorely reluctant to accept that it’s not 2009 anymore in terms of what workers they can hire and at what wage.
Yes, unemployment is still elevated, but workers aren’t in nearly as desperate a position as they were then. So to get the kind of talented people they want, employers are going to have to pay more (or offer better benefits or working conditions) than they would have not that long ago.
.. To see what that looks like on a micro level, I wrote this summer about the trucking industry: Companies are taking a financial hit because they don’t have enough truck drivers — an event that comes after a decade in which truckers’ inflation-adjusted wages have actually fallen slightly.
In effect, there is a standoff between Corporate America and America’s workers. Businesses see demand for their products and want to expand. After years of stagnant wages, workers aren’t prepared to accept these jobs on the terms they are being offered.
Russia Forecasts a Recession in 2015, Signaling a Toll From Sanctions and Oil Prices
In another worrying sign, Russians have been bulking up on consumer items as the ruble depreciates, converting savings into durable goods lest their savings become worthless. Appliance stores in Moscow have seen runs on refrigerators, washing machines and televisions. It is a pattern seen before previous ruble crashes indicating evaporating faith in the currency.