Modi’s Strongman Economics

Mr. Modi once admitted that he is “not a big economist.” Yet he promptly set out an economic vision for India to be a global manufacturing power. Investors should rush to “make in India,”

.. He claimed that his strong leadership would usher in economic revival and 100 million new manufacturing jobs by 2022.

.. He jeered that Mr. Singh — who has a doctorate in economics from Oxford University and was the architect of the liberalization of the Indian economy in the early 1990s — could not stop onion prices rising and that economic growth was jobless, both popular concerns.

.. under Mr. Modi the job-creation rate has fallen, in effect, to zero.

.. In public, some business leaders have gushed that the “almighty” sent Mr. Modi, blessing his “wisdom.” That encourages Mr. Modi to think his personal role is immensely important. He recalls his 13 years running Gujarat, the western Indian state, where he corralled investors, offering land and attractive terms to set up factories. He is tempted to think a country of 1.3 billion might be run in the same way.

.. Mr. Modi’s approach could be called “strongman economics” — the idea that a dominant leader’s sweeping promise is more powerful than deep-set, complicated, economic problems

.. Mr. Modi remains popular, partly because India’s opposition is hopeless and because many Indians like his bombast. Nationalists talk of their country — which will soon be more populous than China — as an emerging superpower.

.. It is still hard, without political help, to buy land to build a factory. And in too many sectors — such as makers of steel, fighter jets and even sex toys — state-owned firms crowd out private ones. Mr. Modi has not done much to fix such problems, beyond telling state governments to try.

.. Who wants to invest if arbitrary political decisions can threaten whole industries?

 

Why Trump Could Use More Economists

Better, Mick Mulvaney said, for opponents of legislation to supply their studies and advocates to supply their own. “And if it works, they would get re-elected and if it doesn’t, they don’t.”

 Mr. Mulvaney’s critique would be more convincing if the administration had in fact put forth its own estimates of the economic effects of its proposals. It hasn’t. Its failure to account for the trade-offs of tax cuts (bigger deficits) or reduced subsidies for health care (more uninsured) are one reason Mr. Trump’s agenda is moving so slowly.
.. Forecasts will be wrong more often than right. But they provide a benchmark against which to test proposals based on theory and evidence rather than instinct or unproven ideological priors.
..That discipline has been lacking in Mr. Trump’s administration. When Mr. Trump announced last week he was pulling out of the Paris climate accord, he cited not internal research on the economic harms of the deal, but a private study commissioned by two groups critical of greenhouse gas regulation. His budget two weeks ago was noteworthy for both forecasting 3% growth, much faster than what independent analysts think plausible, and the absence of any detailed analysis of how it will be achieved. Administration officials then contradicted each other on whether tax cuts would be financed with other tax increases.
.. This may reflect the absence of economists in its hallways, a result of Mr. Trump’s apparent early disdain for experts in general.
.. “I sleep better knowing James Mattis is defense secretary and I will sleep better if Kevin Hassett is confirmed as CEA chair.”

Pope Francis Shocks Workers With Pro-Capitalism Pitch

“There can’t be a good economy without good businessmen, without their capacity to create and to produce,” he said, shattering his reputation as an enemy of the free market economy.

 .. Moreover, only an economically healthy society can keep a democracy afloat, he suggested.
.. “A monthly check from the state that allows you to keep the family afloat doesn’t solve the problem. It has to be resolved with work for everyone,” he said.
.. “When it’s a system of individual incentives that puts workers into competition among themselves, you can obtain some advantages, but it ends up ruining the trust that’s the soul of any organization,” the Pope argued. “When a crisis comes, the company falls apart. It implodes, because there’s no longer any harmony.”
.. The Pope said that it is “the many thousands of men and women who strive each day to do an honest day’s work, to bring home their daily bread, to save money and – one step at a time – to build a better life for their families” who “sustain the life of society.”
.. The Pope’s most remarkable words came when speaking about the ability of the free market to lift people out of poverty.
.. “Business is a noble vocation,” the Pope continued, “directed to producing wealth and improving the world. It can be a fruitful source of prosperity for the area in which it operates, especially if it sees the creation of jobs as an essential part of its service to the common good.”

Everything you need to know about trade economics, in 70 words

If a country consumes more than it produces, it must import more than it exports. That’s not a rip-off; that’s arithmetic.

If we manage to negotiate a reduction in the Chinese trade surplus with the United States, we will have an increased trade deficit with some other country.

Federal deficit spending, a massive and continuing act of dissaving, is the culprit. Control that spending and you will control trade deficits.