Can We Expect an Early Night?

she actually has a campaign, complete with number-crunchers and a turnout machine, whereas her opponent has a bunch of guys playing around with the maps on 270towin.com.

.. There will be no riots, the call will come early, and Trump’s concession speech will be a schizophrenic mess — half a conciliatory attempt to save his kids’ brand equity, half a ranting advertisement for Trump TV.

Cruz strategist: Trump has a math problem

Jeff Roe, Ted Cruz’s campaign manager, tells ‘Off Message’ that Trump’s allergy to analytics could be fatal.

 Media share is the top predictor of electoral success.

Ted Cruz won Iowa but was third after Iowa, behind Rubio and Ben Carson.

We felt if we got him “heads up” we could win.

Fox only showed 7 minutes out of 13 minutes Iowa speech.  Then switched to map showing how Trump could win.

When its raining soup, put a bowl on your head: my grandfather.

Romney had 2 segments.  Obama had 9.  We had thousands of segments. (49-51 min)

There Is No Trump Campaign

But not only has Trump set his sights on winning his home state, he’s also hired a pollster to assist him. Not just any pollster: He’s reportedly hired John McLaughlin, infamous for working on Eric Cantor’s primary campaign in 2014, when the then-House majority leader lost to upstart Dave Brat. McLaughlin’s internal polling heading into the race showed Cantor leading by 34 points.

.. For most intents and purposes, there appears to be no Trump campaign.

.. Back in April, with Trump’s campaign faltering, he laid off scads of staffers in early states, whereas Clinton has maintained her organization, laying groundwork for the general.

.. There’s a vicious cycle at work here, which is that as donors see the Trump campaign in chaos, they’re unwilling to fork over their hard-earned cash. Why back a candidate who’s rending the Republican Party apart, doesn’t follow conservative orthodoxy, and seems to have no idea what he’s doing with the money?

.. “There’s no reason to raise [$1 billion],” Trump told Bloomberg. “I just don’t think I need nearly as much money as other people need because I get so much publicity. I get so many invitations to be on television. I get so many interviews, if I want them.” In an interview with The New York Times, he cited social media as a replacement: “He noted that he is nearing the ability to reach 20 million people by himself through his personal Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts, providing an alternative way to reach the public, even if it’s largely a one-way conversation.”

.. “There’s no reason to raise [$1 billion],” Trump told Bloomberg. “I just don’t think I need nearly as much money as other people need because I get so much publicity. I get so many invitations to be on television. I get so many interviews, if I want them.” In an interview with The New York Times, he cited social media as a replacement: “He noted that he is nearing the ability to reach 20 million people by himself through his personal Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts, providing an alternative way to reach the public, even if it’s largely a one-way conversation.”

Gingerly, Donald Trump Tries Out Some Campaign Conventions

The risk for Mr. Trump is that too much baby-kissing, people-pleasing, Mr. Nice Guy politicking will come across as inauthentic to voters who like that he is, in their view, a tough-talking realist about perceived threats from Muslims, illegal immigrants, and budget-busting Democratic and Republican leaders in Washington.

.. Republican strategists were divided about whether he could win the party’s nomination without embracing retail politics.

.. “This was one of the reasons Romney lost, in my view — he just did largely rallies and stump speeches and was not seen rolling up his sleeves and talking to people where they live,” said Greg Mueller, who advised Patrick J. Buchanan when he ran in New Hampshire in 1992 and 1996. “Trump is positioning on the issues as a populist and a nationalist. He now has to connect with people where they live, not just in speeches.”

.. Only sporadically does Mr. Trump take questions from actual voters, and even those town hall-style events have an atypical feel, with people shouting out questions or Mr. Trump answering them in lightning-round fashion.

.. “He’s the reality TV candidate out here,” Mr. Gross said. “It’s hard to entertain people when they have fried chicken curling out of the corner of their mouths. That’s a dangerous move for him, to transition from reality TV to politics in real time.”