The Quiet War on Medicaid

Progressives have already homed in on Republican efforts to privatize Medicare as one of the major domestic political battles of 2017.

.. Of the two battles, the Republican effort to dismantle Medicaid is more certain.

.. If Mr. Trump chooses to oppose his party’s Medicare proposals while pushing unprecedented cuts to older people and working families in other vital safety-net programs, it would play into what seems to be an emerging strategy of his: to publicly fight a few select or symbolic populist battles in order to mask an overall economic and fiscal strategy that showers benefits on the most well-off at the expense of tens of millions of Americans.

.. it will be too easy for Mr. Trump to market the false notion that Medicaid is a bloated, wasteful program and that such financing caps are means simply to give states more flexibility while “slowing growth.” Medicaid’s actual spending per beneficiary has, on average, grown about 3 percentage points less each year than it has for those with private health insurance

..Together, full repeal and block granting would cut Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program funding by about $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years — a 40 percent cut.

.. a similar Medicaid block grant proposed by Mr. Ryan in 2012 would lead to 14 million to 21 million Americans’ losing their Medicaid coverage by the 10th year, and that is on top of the 13 million who would lose Medicaid or children’s insurance program

.. Current Republican plans to eliminate the marketplace subsidies and A.C.A. Medicaid expansion in 2019 would create a health care cliff where all of the Medicaid funds and subsidies for the A.C.A. expansion would simply disappear and 30 million people would lose their health care.

.. In the face of such a manufactured crisis

.. About 60 percent of the costs of traditional Medicaid come from providing nursing home care and other types of care for the elderly and those with disabilities.

.. It would take only three Republican senators thinking twice about the wisdom of block grants and per capita caps to put a halt to the coming war on Medicaid.

Populism, Real and Phony

Authoritarians with an animus against ethnic minorities are on the march across the Western world. They control governments in Hungary and Poland, and will soon take power in America. And they’re organizing across borders: Austria’s Freedom Party, founded by former Nazis, has signed an agreement with Russia’s ruling party — and met with Donald Trump’s choice for national security adviser.

.. And no, there won’t be a “terrific” replacement: Republican plans would cover only a fraction as many people as the law they would displace, and they’d be different people — younger, healthier and richer.

.. In other words, the movement that’s about to take power here isn’t the same as Europe’s far-right movements. It may share their racism and contempt for democracy; but European populism is at least partly real, while Trumpist populism is turning out to be entirely fake, a scam sold to working-class voters who are in for a rude awakening.

.. This epic bait-and-switch, this betrayal of supporters, certainly offers Democrats a political opportunity. But you know that there will be huge efforts to shift the blame. These will include claims that the collapse of health care is really President Obama’s fault; claims that the failure of alternatives is somehow the fault of recalcitrant Democrats; and an endless series of attempts to distract the public.

.. Expect more Carrier-style stunts that don’t actually help workers but dominate a news cycle.

.. it’s worth remembering what authoritarian regimes traditionally do to shift attention from failing policies, namely, find some foreigners to confront.

Romney Was Right About Russia

In 2012 he called the Kremlin our ‘No. 1 geopolitical foe.’ Why can’t Trump see it?

President Obama owes Mitt Romney an apology. And so does President-elect Trump.

In an interview with Wolf Blitzer on March 26, 2012, Mr. Romney said that Russia is “without question our No. 1 geopolitical foe.” He went on to explain: When countries such as Iran and North Korea cross the line, “when Assad . . . is murdering his own people” and we go to the United Nations looking for ways to stop them, “Who is it that always stands up with the world’s worst actors? It’s always Russia.”

.. Mr. Putin’s toxic blend of authoritarianism and assertive nationalism is gaining adherents across Europe and inspiring autocrats around the world. If he can distort democratic politics in the United States and get away with it, he can do so anywhere.